June 27, 2025

Overview:

Reports and articles referenced:

Housing data for download:

https://www.realtor.com/research/data

VIDEO TRANSCRIPT:

  • Im Danielle Hale , Chief Economist at Realtor.com � . As summer gets hotter and Independence Day celebrations near, Im going to discuss the latest readings on consumer confidence & sentiment and the Feds preferred inflation gauge . Ill review what happened to mortgage rates and the plethora of housing data including existing home sales , new home sales and pending home sales . Ill dig in on the widely watched Case-Shiller price index and compare that with more recent weekly housing data from Realtor.com . Finally, Ill look at the latest Realtor.com research on housing affordability trends . 
  • Lets start with inflation which showed that the Feds preferred gauge rose 2.3% in the year even as the index excluding food and energy prices edged a bit higher. Consumer confidence slipped in June, and while consumer sentiment improved, both measures remain at a concerningly sluggish level. 
  • The sour outlook from consumers and consistent wait-and see policy from the Fed helped push interest rates, including mortgage rates lower. The dip was housing friendly, but small, so its impact will be modest.
  • In housing, the April Case Shiller home price index showed regional divergence, with price gains strongest in Northeast and Midwest markets like New York, Chicago, and Detroit. Southern marketsTampa and Dallaswere the only two to see price declines in the last year.
  • Existing home sales rose in May as the number of for-sale grew, bringing months supply to a nearly 9-year high. Nationwide, were still short of a buyers market, but buyers are gaining market power, especially in the South and West.
  • Pending home sales , a forward looking indicator of home sales that measure an early-stage in the buying process, also moved higher in May, suggesting that existing home sales may edge further higher in the months ahead. 
  • But new home sales fell from both the prior month and prior year. In recent years, builders had benefited from limited existing inventory that pushed existing sales to 30-year lows, but as more home owners decide to sell, builders will increasingly face competition for buyers. 
  • Looking at Realtor.com weekly housing data we see that home prices eked out a small gain and time on market slowed less than in prior weeks even as new listings and active inventory continued to climb.  Again, new listing growth rose at a slower pace than weve seen recently, which could slow the buyer-friendly momentum weve seen in inventory recovery. 
  • Buyer-friendly trends are really paramount because the housing market has been tipped so far in favor of sellers that affordability has defied expectations and made it almost impossible for buyers to stick to the 30% rule that suggests keeping housing costs to just 30% of your income. A Realtor.com study found that a median income buyer of the typical for-sale home could meet this affordability guideline in only 3 markets in May: Pittsburgh, Detroit, and St. Louis. How does your market stack up?
  • You can find all the details, including full reports and our housing data for download , at realtor.com/research .  You can also follow us on X (formerly twitter ) for real time updates. And instagram for graphics. 
  • And a brief programming note we will not have a video next week as we celebrate Independence Day. Ill be back the following week. I wish you a safe & happy 4th!

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