• Bitcoin struggles below $111K despite bullish indicators and the highest monthly close ever.
  • Q3 historically weak for BTC, yet market sentiment remains cautious amid macro uncertainty.

The crypto market has been on edge following President Donald Trumps tariff announcements, triggering fresh waves of volatility.

Bitcoin [BTC], which briefly dipped to $105,000, has since rebounded and is currently trading at $107,898, marking a modest 0.8% gain in the past 24 hours, according to CoinGecko.

Crypto sentiment remains optimistic

However, despite market fluctuations, overall sentiment remains relatively optimistic.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index registered a score of 63, still within the Greed zone, although slightly lower than the previous day.

Commenting on the same, NoOnes CEO and long-time Bitcoin supporter, Ray Youssef, in an e-mail sent to AMBCrypto, highlighted that Bitcoin has just recorded its highest monthly close ever.

This is a strong indicator that its long-term bullish trend remains intact.

However, price movement tells a more restrained story, with BTC locked in a tight trading range between $106,000 and $108,700 for the past week.

Youssef noted, 

This reveals how tightly Bitcoin is still boxed into the risk-on corner of the global portfolio, while it should be playing its role as a macro hedge in its asset class.

Historical trends

That being said, historically, Bitcoin has managed an average third-quarter gain of 5.47% since 2013, according to CoinGlass, suggesting a potential price of around $111,000 by the end of September if the trend holds.

However, analysts like Daan attribute Q3s typically subdued performance to the slower pace of summer trading, with reduced volume and liquidity.

As you can see from the historical data, this quarter is generally the slowest out of all, for both $BTC & $ETH.

Still, key indicators suggest market sentiment remains skewed toward Bitcoin.

This is because its dominance sits at 65.5%, reflecting a strong lead over altcoins, while CoinMarketCaps Altcoin Season Index currently reads just 20 out of 100, signaling a clear Bitcoin Season.

Yet, not all signals point to strength, as CryptoQuants head of research, Julio Moreno, put it best when he said, 

Bitcoin Bull Score is in NEUTRAL territory now 50. Needs to be 60 or above for prices to sustain a rally. 

Where is Bitcoin heading?

Historically, July has been Bitcoins most resilient month, never recording a loss greater than 10%.

Yet, despite hovering just 5.5% below its all-time high, BTC has struggled to reclaim the $111K level for over 40 days.

This prolonged range-bound movement is raising concerns that what once appeared as healthy consolidation may be turning into a potential local top.

So, although historical patterns favor optimism, current data suggests investors may need to proceed with caution this July.